Will the Outer Banks See Increased Growth with the Changes to the I-95/I-87 Corridor?

As North Carolina's transportation infrastructure undergoes significant evolution with the development of Interstate 87 and improvements to Interstate 95, a critical question emerges for one of the state's premier tourist destinations:

Will the Outer Banks see increased growth as a result of these transportation corridor changes? The answer involves a complex interplay of economic factors, tourism patterns, accessibility considerations, and regional development dynamics.

The I-95/I-87 Connection: A New Gateway to Eastern North Carolina

The development of Interstate 87 represents one of the most significant transportation infrastructure projects in eastern North Carolina in decades. When completed, this approximately 213-mile interstate will connect Raleigh to Norfolk, Virginia, creating a crucial north-south corridor that intersects with the existing east-west U.S. 64 route to the Outer Banks.

I-87's route will follow U.S. 64 east from Raleigh to Williamston, where it will turn northward along U.S. 17, passing through Elizabeth City before crossing into Virginia. There, it will connect with Interstates 64 and 464 near Norfolk and the port facilities. While only the first 12.9 miles of I-87 are currently completed (from I-440 in Raleigh to Rolesville Road), the project continues to advance with future segments planned for development over the coming years.

This new interstate corridor, intersecting with the improved I-95 route, has the potential to transform access patterns to the Outer Banks in several important ways:

1. Enhanced Northern Access Route: With improved connections from Norfolk and the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, I-87 could make the northern Outer Banks (Corolla, Duck, Southern Shores) more accessible to visitors from the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions who currently face challenging travel routes.

2. Alternative Western Route: For travelers coming from western points via Raleigh, the I-87/US-64 corridor offers a more streamlined route to reach the central and northern Outer Banks without having to navigate the congested I-95 corridor further south.

3. New Logistical Patterns: The improved transportation infrastructure could reshape supply chains and delivery routes for businesses on the Outer Banks, potentially reducing costs and expanding options for goods and services.

However, while construction on North Carolina's portion of I-87 is progressing, Virginia has been slower to develop its segment. As one North Carolina Department of Transportation spokesperson noted, "Virginia needs to do their part," suggesting that the full benefits of the connection may not be realized for some time, possibly taking up to 20 years for completion.

Current Tourism Landscape on the Outer Banks

To understand how transportation improvements might impact the Outer Banks, it's essential to first examine the current tourism landscape, which has been evolving rapidly in recent years.

The Outer Banks has experienced remarkable growth in tourism revenue over the past decade. As of 2022, Dare County alone recorded $1.98 billion in tourist spending, making it the fourth-highest county in North Carolina for visitor expenditures, behind only the major metropolitan counties of Mecklenburg, Wake, and Buncombe. With neighboring Currituck County adding another $549 million, the Outer Banks region accounted for approximately 7.6% of North Carolina's total tourism spending.

This growth has brought both benefits and challenges. On the positive side, tourism has created substantial economic activity and employment in the region. According to local tourism officials, nearly half of all jobs in Dare County are connected to the tourism industry, and visitor spending provides significant tax relief to local residents—estimated at nearly $3,700 per resident in tax savings.

However, the region has also faced growing pains related to this success. Peak-season congestion, strain on infrastructure, housing affordability issues, and environmental impacts have all emerged as concerns. A recent management planning effort by the Outer Banks Visitors Bureau explicitly acknowledges the need to balance continued growth with sustainability and quality of life for residents.

According to recent data presented at an Outer Banks tourism summit, visitor numbers have begun to stabilize after the dramatic post-pandemic surge of 2021-2022, with a modest growth rate of around 3-5%. This suggests the region may be approaching a natural plateau in its current tourism capacity, given existing infrastructure and accessibility constraints.

Potential Growth Scenarios with Improved Transportation Corridors

With this context in mind, several scenarios emerge for how the I-95/I-87 corridor improvements could impact growth on the Outer Banks:

Scenario 1: Moderate Growth Acceleration

In this scenario, the improved transportation corridors gradually enhance accessibility to the Outer Banks, primarily by making the journey more convenient and reliable for existing visitor markets. The key impacts would include:

• Extended Peak Season: Easier access could encourage more spontaneous weekend trips during shoulder seasons (April-May and September-October), helping to extend the traditional summer season.

• Larger Drive Market Radius: The improved highway network could expand the geographical range of the "drive market" for the Outer Banks, potentially drawing more visitors from regions that previously found the journey too cumbersome.

• Slight Increase in Overall Visitation: Annual visitor numbers might see a modest increase of 5-8% above current projections once the corridors are fully developed.

Under this scenario, the Outer Banks would experience incremental growth that its current infrastructure could likely accommodate with targeted improvements.

Scenario 2: Significant Tourism Expansion

A more dramatic growth scenario could emerge if the improved corridors substantially transform accessibility to the Outer Banks, particularly from the major metropolitan areas of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Key features of this scenario would include:

• Major Shift in Market Access: The I-87 corridor could position the Outer Banks as a more accessible alternative to competing beach destinations like Virginia Beach, Ocean City, or Myrtle Beach for certain markets.

• Development Pressure: Significantly improved access could trigger a new wave of development interest, particularly in areas with remaining developable land.

• Potential 10-15% Growth: Annual visitor numbers could increase by 10-15% or more above current projections, potentially pushing the region toward the "Aggressive Growth" scenario outlined in the Outer Banks' long-range tourism planning.

This level of growth would likely require substantial infrastructure investment and careful management to prevent overtourism impacts.

Scenario 3: Modest Redistribution of Existing Tourism

A third scenario involves less overall growth but a redistribution of when and where visitors travel within the Outer Banks region. Key aspects would include:

• Northern Outer Banks Emphasis: The I-87 corridor, with its Virginia connection, could particularly benefit the northern beach communities like Corolla and Duck, which are already more accessible from Virginia.

• Gateway Community Growth: Elizabeth City, which sits directly on the I-87 corridor approximately one hour from the Outer Banks, could see significant development as a gateway community, capturing some tourism-related economic activity.

• Seasonal Pattern Shifts: Improved year-round access could further accelerate the trend toward winter and off-season visitation, distributing tourism impacts more evenly throughout the year.

In this scenario, the total number of annual visitors might not dramatically increase, but the patterns of visitation would evolve in response to the new transportation options.

Potential Economic Impacts Beyond Tourism

While tourism naturally dominates any discussion of Outer Banks economic growth, the I-95/I-87 corridor improvements could foster economic diversification in ways that indirectly benefit the barrier islands:

Supply Chain and Logistics Benefits

The Outer Banks faces unique supply chain challenges as a relatively isolated coastal destination. Currently, most goods must be transported via either US-64 from the west or US-158 from the north—routes that can become congested during peak tourism seasons.

The improved I-95/I-87 corridor, particularly with the CSX intermodal terminal in Rocky Mount where I-95 and future I-87 intersect, could create more efficient supply chain options. This might reduce costs for Outer Banks businesses and potentially allow for a wider range of commercial enterprises to operate viably in the region.

Elizabeth City as a Strategic Hub

Elizabeth City, positioned at the intersection of future I-87 and the routes to the Outer Banks, stands to benefit significantly from the transportation improvements. As one economic developer for Pasquotank County noted, "This kind of swings the pendulum for Elizabeth City."

A revitalized Elizabeth City could become a more robust service center for the Outer Banks, potentially hosting:

• Distribution and warehousing operations serving the coastal communities

• Expanded retail options that capture some spending before tourists reach the islands

• Service businesses supporting the Outer Banks tourism industry

• Housing for workers employed in the Outer Banks but seeking more affordable living options

The growth of Elizabeth City as a complementary hub could help address some capacity constraints on the Outer Banks itself while still generating regional economic benefits.

Residential Development Patterns

The transportation improvements could also influence residential development patterns in the broader region, with potential spillover effects for the Outer Banks:

• Increased Second Home Development: Better accessibility could make the Outer Banks more attractive as a second home location for residents of major metropolitan areas within a day's drive.

• Workforce Housing in Adjacent Areas: Improved transportation corridors might allow more Outer Banks workers to live in more affordable mainland communities while commuting to jobs on the islands.

• Retiree Migration: The combination of coastal amenities and better transportation access could accelerate retiree migration to the broader region.

These changing residential patterns would affect property values, tax bases, and community dynamics throughout eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.

Limiting Factors and Constraints

Despite the potential growth opportunities created by improved transportation corridors, several factors will likely moderate their impact on the Outer Banks:

Physical and Environmental Constraints

The Outer Banks face inherent physical limitations as narrow barrier islands. Much of the land is either already developed or protected through various conservation designations, including Cape Hatteras National Seashore, Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge, and various state preserves.

Additionally, the islands face growing environmental challenges from climate change, sea level rise, and coastal erosion—factors that may constrain future development regardless of transportation improvements.

Infrastructure Capacity

Beyond roads, the Outer Banks' growth is limited by other infrastructure systems, including:

• Water Supply: Freshwater resources on the barrier islands are limited and vulnerable to saltwater intrusion.

• Wastewater Management: Most properties rely on septic systems, limiting development density.

• Power and Telecommunications: While improving, utility services face resilience challenges in the coastal environment.

Transportation improvements alone cannot overcome these infrastructure constraints, which will continue to moderate growth potential.

Accessibility Bottlenecks

Even with improved mainland transportation corridors, access to the Outer Banks will still face bottlenecks at key points:

• Wright Memorial Bridge: The primary northern access point onto the barrier islands via US-158 remains a constraint.

• US-64 Virginia Dare Bridge: This bridge connecting Roanoke Island to the mainland is a critical link that can experience congestion.

• NC-12: The main north-south route along the barrier islands has limited capacity and vulnerability to storm damage.

These bottlenecks will continue to moderate the growth impacts of the improved I-95/I-87 corridors.

Strategic Considerations for the Outer Banks

Given these dynamics, how should the Outer Banks region respond to the potential growth implications of the I-95/I-87 corridor improvements? Several strategic approaches emerge:

Leveraging Accessibility for Seasonal Balance

Rather than simply accommodating more peak-season visitors, the Outer Banks could strategically use improved transportation access to balance visitation throughout the year. This approach would:

• Target shoulder and off-season marketing efforts to regions with improved access via the new corridors

• Develop winter and shoulder-season events and attractions that capitalize on easier access

• Create transportation-related incentives for off-peak travel, such as reduced bridge tolls or parking fees

This strategy could increase overall tourism revenues while minimizing additional strain on peak-season infrastructure.

Regional Collaboration for Distributed Benefits

The Outer Banks could partner with nearby mainland communities, particularly Elizabeth City and others along the US-17/future I-87 corridor, to create a more integrated regional destination. This might include:

• Developing complementary attractions on the mainland that extend visitors' stays in the region

• Creating transportation links between the Outer Banks and mainland communities, potentially including water taxis or shuttle services

• Collaborating on regional marketing that positions the broader area as a diverse coastal destination

This approach would distribute both the benefits and impacts of tourism growth beyond the barrier islands themselves.

Infrastructure Investment Prioritization

If the improved transportation corridors do accelerate growth, strategic infrastructure investments will be essential. Priorities might include:

• Enhancing the capacity and resilience of the bridges and highways connecting the islands to the mainland

• Expanding public transportation options both on the islands and connecting to mainland communities

• Investing in water, wastewater, and energy systems that can sustainably support increased visitation and development

These investments would need to be carefully timed to align with actual growth patterns rather than speculative projections.

Balancing Growth and Character

Perhaps the most fundamental question facing the Outer Banks is not whether the improved I-95/I-87 corridors will bring growth, but how to balance that growth with the unique character that makes the region attractive in the first place.

The Outer Banks' appeal stems largely from its natural beauty, relatively uncrowded beaches (compared to more urban coastal destinations), distinctive communities, and rich cultural heritage. Unmanaged growth could potentially undermine these very qualities.

The recent Long-Range Tourism Management Planning initiative by the Outer Banks Visitors Bureau reflects an understanding of this challenge. It explicitly acknowledges that the impacts of tourism are "both positive and negative" and seeks to find a sustainable middle path that the organization characterizes as "Moderate Growth"—enough to sustain economic prosperity but not so much as to overwhelm the region's carrying capacity.

The improved I-95/I-87 corridors will likely accelerate the need for this balanced approach, requiring thoughtful planning, community engagement, and regional collaboration.

Outer Banks Growth Evolution Rather Than Revolution

In assessing whether the Outer Banks will see increased growth with changes to the I-95/I-87 corridor, the most likely outcome appears to be evolution rather than revolution. The transportation improvements will gradually reshape access patterns, visitor markets, and regional development dynamics, but they are unlikely to trigger a sudden transformation of the Outer Banks itself.

Several factors support this measured outlook:

1. Implementation Timeline: The full I-87 corridor will take years, possibly decades, to complete, allowing for gradual adaptation rather than sudden change.

2. Existing Constraints: The physical, environmental, and infrastructure constraints on the Outer Banks will continue to moderate growth regardless of mainland transportation improvements.

3. Market Maturity: The Outer Banks is already a well-established destination with relatively high occupancy rates during peak seasons, suggesting limited capacity for dramatic growth in those periods.

4. Strategic Management: The region has demonstrated increasing sophistication in tourism management, with explicit recognition of the need to balance growth with sustainability and community character.

For residents, businesses, and policymakers in the Outer Banks, the evolving I-95/I-87 corridor represents both an opportunity and a challenge. It offers the potential for more stable year-round visitation, improved supply chains, and stronger regional connections, but it also increases pressure on already-constrained resources and infrastructure.

By taking a proactive approach—one that leverages improved accessibility while carefully managing its impacts—the Outer Banks can potentially harness the benefits of the transportation improvements while preserving the unique coastal character that makes it special. The result may not be dramatic growth, but rather a more sustainable, resilient, and economically diverse regional economy that continues to revolve around this extraordinary string of barrier islands.